January Global Macro Monthly - The great election year
- Geopolitical tensions are rising with tit-for-tat attacks rising in the Middle East. This raises the risks of an escalating conflict. And is already beginning to affect the inflation outlook as shipping diverts to avoid the area.
- Non-economic developments look set to play an important part of 2024 as around half the world’s population goes to the polls – the great election year.
- The US election in November – already underway in primaries – will be the most consequential globally. European parliamentary elections are due in June and UK elections are expected in H2 2024.
- Around 60 emerging market economies go to the polls, including the most populous India, Indonesia and Mexico. We also note important elections in South Africa and local elections in Turkey.
- Central banks are pushing back more obviously against excessive market rate cut pricing.