Take Two: Stock markets hit fresh highs; Eurozone inflation rises

What do you need to know? 

The US market was among those to hit a fresh high last week despite the federal government’s first shutdown in almost seven years after it failed to meet a deadline to agree a new funding bill. The US blue-chip S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices climbed to record levels while the price of gold, traditionally seen as a so-called safe haven during periods of uncertainty, also hit a new high - the precious metal is now up by almost 50% year to date. Elsewhere, the UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 and Europe’s Stoxx 600 also hit new peaks. 

Around the world

Eurozone annual inflation rose to 2.2% in September, from 2.0% in August, according to an official flash estimate. Although in line with market forecasts, the level exceeded the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time since April and was driven by increased services prices. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile components of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, remained steady at 2.3% for the fifth consecutive month. Despite the uptick in the headline rate, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 2% when it next meets at the end of October.   

Figure in focus: 49.8

China’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, marking the longest period of decline in six years, underlining weakness in the world’s second largest economy. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved slightly to 49.8 from 49.4 in August - its highest reading since March - though a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Meanwhile the non-manufacturing PMI, which measures services and construction activity, fell to 50.0, from 50.3 in August. US trade tariffs have weighed on China’s manufacturing industry as well as exporters, while the country is also enduring subdued domestic demand.

Words of wisdom

Industrial robots: Robots which carry out often labour-intensive tasks in an industrial environment - such as manufacturing and the automotive sector - and are automatically, rather than manually, controlled. Some 542,000 industrial robots were installed in 2024, more than double the number 10 years ago, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). This marks the second highest annual installation count, just 2% lower than 2022’s all-time high, as increased automation continues to drive demand. Asia accounted for the largest percentage of new deployments in 2024 at 74%, compared to 16% in Europe and 9% in the Americas, the IFR said.

What’s coming up? 

On Monday, the Eurozone publishes August’s retail sales data. Tuesday sees Canada issue import and export figures, and its latest Ivey PMI. On Wednesday, Germany reports industrial production data, and the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its latest policy meeting. At its last gathering the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%. On Friday Canada reports unemployment numbers for September.