Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

Turkey General Elections: The final countdown

  • 09 May 2023 (5 min read)

Key points

  • Turkey’s people will choose a president and members of parliament on 14 and 28 May in what appears to be a very tight race. Opinion polls show the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu winning against incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but his lead is within the polls’ margin of error
  • The pro-Kurdish party running under the Green Left Party (YSP) banner will likely be the ‘kingmaker’ in the parliamentary configuration
  • Whoever wins the race will face the task of improving Turkey’s economic outlook, which has grown increasingly unbalanced in the past quarters – and years
  • A recession in the second half of 2023 is on the cards, with more painful adjustments on the currency side likely, before Turkish assets again appear attractive for foreign investors. Improving the institutional framework will be key to implementing effective reforms. This looks likely to be a long and cumbersome process
Turkey General Elections: The final countdown
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