Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

September Global Macro Monthly - Where we are in the cycle – and the supercycle

  • 27 September 2023 (10 min read)

Key points:

  • The summer has seen further reevaluation of where key economies are in the current economic cycle.
  • The US has seen ongoing resilience and we no longer expect recession, but a slowdown threatens Q4. The Fed has likely peaked at 5.50%, but markets are unsure.
  • The Eurozone economy appears to be slowing more quickly and we expect a drop in Q3 GDP, although no recession. The ECB has likely peaked at 4.00%.
  • China may be past its nadir, with output data rising in August and the authorities enacting a range of stimuli. But broader uncertainty over housing and banks continues to weigh over the medium-term outlook.
  • We also consider the supercycle, considering the emergence of generative AI as a contender to form the next technological wave of development. We consider the outlook in the context of historical technology waves.
Investment Institute

Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions.

VISIT THE INVESTMENT INSTITUTE

Related Articles

Monthly Market Update

October Global Macro Monthly -Geopolitics and yield add to macro uncertainty

  • by AXA Investment Managers
  • 25 October 2023 (10 min read)
Monthly Market Update

October OpEd - Bond pressure

  • by Gilles Moëc , Chris Iggo
  • 25 October 2023 (10 min read)
Monthly Market Update

September Op-Ed - In for the long haul

  • by Gilles Moëc , Chris Iggo
  • 27 September 2023 (10 min read)

    Disclaimer

    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.