Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

September Global Macro Monthly - Summer passes, winter’s coming

  • 28 September 2022 (7 min read)

Key points

  • An energy crunch appears to be materialising with Germany and CEE countries most affected.
  • We forecast recession in the Eurozone, with a sharp contraction in coming quarters. The UK also looks set to experience recession, despite a fiscal package that has undermined confidence in UK markets.
  • Chinese activity struggles on housing restructuring and COVID. We lower our 2022 growth outlook to 3%.
  • US activity has been mixed, with falling gasoline providing short-term relief. Still there is overwhelming expectation of stagnation or outright contraction.
  • The Fed continues to tighten policy aggressively. While most other central banks follow, the dollar continues to rise, threatening broader instability.
  • Financial conditions have tightened. The rate outlook will ease only once tighter conditions visibly slow growth.

Related Documents

Full Global Macro Monthly - September 2022
Download article (713.42 KB)
Full slide deck of our September Global Monthly Strategy
Download the full deck (1.91 MB)
Investment Institute

Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions.

Visit the Investment Institute

Related Articles

Monthly Market Update

October Global Macro Monthly -Geopolitics and yield add to macro uncertainty

  • by AXA Investment Managers
  • 25 October 2023 (10 min read)
Monthly Market Update

October OpEd - Bond pressure

  • by Gilles Moëc , Chris Iggo
  • 25 October 2023 (10 min read)
Monthly Market Update

September Global Macro Monthly - Where we are in the cycle – and the supercycle

  • by AXA IM Investment Institute
  • 27 September 2023 (10 min read)