Investment Institute
Macroeconomic Research

French elections: Wait until summer


Key points

  • Despite increased political fragmentation, polls suggest France is likely to re-elect President Emmanuel Macron for another term. Turnout and live TV debate in between the two rounds will be key.

  • Uncertainty runs high for the subsequent parliamentary elections in June. While an opposition led parliament is unlikely, ad-hoc political compromise may be needed, complicating policy making.

  • Concerns over purchasing power are rising and are likely to get worse before they improve, even with candidates’ proposals. The campaign has missed an opportunity to question the overall role of State.

  • Current polls suggest the most likely scenario is unlikely to rock markets and France’s growth is likely to outperform Eurozone peers. Despite ECB monetary policy normalisation, reinvestments should continue to provide support to French bond market.

Download the insight
Download report (495.65 KB)

Related Articles

Macroeconomic Research

US 2024 presidential election: The potential global impact

Macroeconomic Research

Eurozone GDP: Spain roars, Germany coughs

Macroeconomic Research

India’s economy: A compelling growth and investment story but challenges remain

    Disclaimer

    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.

    All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.

    Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.

    Back to top