Investment Institute
Macroeconomic Research

Brazil’s Presidential Election: Familiar names for an uncertain future

  • 27 September 2022 (7 min read)

Key points

  • On 2 October, Brazilians will vote to elect a new President for the 2023-2027 term. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election will be held on 30 October. Voters will also elect members of Congress, state Governors and state Legislative Assemblies.
  • Polls show a clear two-horse race between former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. While Lula still holds a sizeable lead, Bolsonaro has however been able to narrow the gap in recent weeks.
  • While both candidates sit at opposite ends of the political spectrum, they would likely pursue similar fiscal policies which favour populism over much-needed structural reform.
  • The next president will face a highly fragmented Congress, which will impede both a radical policy shift to the left in the case of Lula’s victory, but also structural reforms needed to jumpstart economic growth and ensure fiscal sustainability.

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