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Macro insights

14 November 2019

UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?

The General Election on 12 December will set the course for the UK’s exit – or not – from the European Union and the next phase of Brexit.

Macro insights

04 November 2019

US GDP beats expectations, Fed cuts rates and UK Parliament agrees to December election

Last week was a big one for the US. Third quarter (Q3) GDP came in at 1.9%, modestly above our own 1.8% forecast and firmer than the consensus expectation of 1.6%.

Macro insights

28 October 2019

Fed expected to cut rates for third time in a big week of economic data

The economy forces its way onto the US centre stage this week. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision and give a press conference on Wednesday evening.

Macro insights

21 October 2019

Chinese growth at three-decade low, Brexit deal agreed but uncertainty continues

Better September data not enough to arrest China’s growth slowdown. A moderate recovery in September activity failed to prevent China’s GDP growth from falling to 6% - its lowest in almost three deca ...

Macro insights

14 October 2019

Negotiations on trade and Brexit continue, but has progress been made?

Trade tensions will continue to dominate the economic outlook. The coming week’s Empire State and Philadelphia Federal surveys will provide the first estimates of October’s US manufacturing activity.

Macro insights

07 October 2019

Global economic slowdown underlined by weak sector data

The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week.

Macro insights

30 September 2019

US and UK political drama, contrasting signals from China and Eurozone PMIs

Impeachment deliberations will be uppermost in US political debates following the Democrat move last week to conduct an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump.

Macro insights

23 September 2019

Fed cuts again, Eurozone PMI surprises, UK prorogation ruling due

The US Federal Reserve took the spotlight last week. In terms of monetary policy, its decision to cut rates by 0.25% to 1.75-2.00% was in line with our expectations.

Macro insights

16 September 2019

ECB cuts rates, Fed expected to follow; Brexit political drama continues and oil prices spike

The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement and press conference on Wednesday evening will dominate financial markets’ focus this week. We remain of the view that the Fed will ease monetary p ...