89 insights found
Accumulating signs of cyclical softness in the US may help Biden’s massive stimulus through Congress, but some compromise will be needed.
Biden’s Fiscal Reflation
We finally have a clear picture of the parliamentary parameters for Biden’s economic policy. The fiscal push may be a headache for the Fed, and we expect market pressure on the central bank to peak w ...
We take a step back and focus for the last Macrocast of 2020 on the new "big government" zeitgeist.
Stubborn Second Wave
The Brexit noises are deafening but the key news flow remains the pandemic. The current wave is relentless in the US.
This Thursday could be a key moment for Europe, with the ECB meeting and the beginning of the European council
Fiscal Forward Guidance
The current EU fiscal surveillance framework is probably ill-suited to guide governments through their “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary policy stimulus.
We look at “glitches” which impair fiscal policy in the US and the Euro area. We don’t think the Republican “red line” on a quantum would constrain a decent emergency stimulus that much.
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over
The sanitary situation in the US is concerning and the good news on the vaccine won’t likely change the macro trajectory before mid-2021.
If after the January 5th run-offs in Georgia the Democrats still don’t control the Senate, President-elect Biden will have to try to follow a “purple pathway” on economic policy to address “secular s ...