103 insights found
Message in a bottleneck?
The disappointing US labor market data last week are read in the wider context of supply-side bottlenecks, which could fuel the debate on tapering.
The Atlantic gap widened
While the US GDP is less than 1% below its pre-pandemic level, the Euro area fell back in recession.
We think there is a case for a higher level of the natural interest rate post-pandemic in the US.
Going for the green diagonal
We look at an understated aspect of the US administration’s “green conversion”, the role of the federal regulatory agencies, in the context of the US attempt to assert global leadership in the fight ...
Market-based US inflation expectations have stopped climbing, in contrast with the message from businesses and consumers, contributing to a stabilization of the US bond market.
The cost of dominance
The high level meeting between US and Chinese officials last week was acrimonious.
Forward-looking and short-sighted
• Inflation expectations tend to be “over-sensitive” to the current message of business surveys, which have good predictive power over a short horizon only.
It may have to hurt
The Senate passed the fiscal stimulus bill with little concession from Biden.
Walking and Talking
Fed speakers "talked dovish" but did not push back against the rise in yields, which unsurprisingly continued. The ECB is more pro-active.