AXA WF Framlington Robotech

Performance & Market environment Global Equity markets rose modestly for the first 3 weeks of the month before falling sharply at the end of the month as concerns around the Coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading outside of China weighed on Financial markets. The Robotech strategy outperformed the broader global equity market (MSCI All Country world Index) during the period as a result of stock selection, but also having exposure to sectors that were a bit more resilient during the drawdown such as Technology and Healthcare. In times of economic uncertainty, it’s important to look not just at the growth opportunities of companies and how they are impacted by the disruption, but, should the virus have an impact for a more extended period, then the balance sheet strength of the companies becomes more important. Broadly speaking the companies held in the portfolio have substantially less debt (or indeed no debt), compared to overall equity indices and we attribute some of the relative performance of the fund to this fact. Q4 earnings season is now largely over, it seems like reported results have been broadly better than anticipated, albeit with some uncertainly in the outlook statement based on the evolving impact of coronavirus issues. Our position in Dexcom, a US medical device company focussed on connected devices used for measuring blood sugar levels for diabetic patients performed strongly as it reported much better than expected profitability accompanying its 37% reported growth rate for Q4 2019. Nvidia, a US semiconductor company focussing on GPU chips used for AI, High Performance computing and Gaming performed well after reporting a stronger outlook than anticipated as demand across these three areas continues to recover. The sell off in the final week of February was fairly indiscriminate, with the majority of the holding in the portfolio declining. We saw weakness in some of our more highly valued Medtech names. Portfolio Activity We initiated new positions in Healthcare companies Varian and Axonics. Varian is a leading US Manufacture that used AI to enhance the targeting of radiation oncology treatments and Axonics makes a device for Sacral Neuromodulation for the treatment of overactive bladders and faecal incontinence. Prior to the sell off at the end of the month, we took profits on Lumentum and Ambarella which have performed well over the last couple of months. We used the proceeds of these partial sales to increase our positions in Zimmer Biomet Holdings (where we started a position in January) and selectively top up some other positions that have been impacted by the recent volatility. Market Outlook The full impact of the coronavirus remains to be seen, but central banks and governments appear poised for action to support the economy, with stimulus measures announced already in some of the areas most impacted - China, Hong Kong and Italy, and measures seemingly due to be announced in a number of other major economies. We had previously seen some of the leading indicators for global economic activity, such as machine tool orders and robot orders starting to improve, however we note that a recovery in these areas will now be delayed as a result of the disruption caused by the coronavirus. Whilst timing entry points following a drawdown like we saw at the end of the month can be challenging, we remain constructive on the outlook for the robotics and automation industries and see valuations looking more compelling following the sell off. We anticipate several major 5G smartphone launches which will require a significant CAPEX investment for their manufacturing. It’s important to note that the Consumer Electronics industry is now the largest buyer of Industrial robotics, over taking the Automotive industry a couple of years ago. The last major smartphone CAPEX cycle was in 2017 and this benefitted a number of companies in a diverse set of end markets ranging from Vision Systems, to traditional Industrial Robots, to Laser Manufacturers. We see 2020 and 2021 being major years for launches of Electric Vehicles and the start of the transition of this technology going from niche to more mainstream. Whilst we are not forecasting broad adoption of electric in the immediate future, a significant amount of CAPEX will need to be spend over the next few years to build the manufacturing facility to make these cars. Focussing longer term, it is clear that semiconductors have been proliferating more and more in the world around us over the last decade as the world has become more connected. Historically, this has been most visible in the form of smartphones and other consumer devices. The last few years has seen a broadening application in to other parts of the economy such as industrials and autos. We believe that we are at the early stages of a growth inflection for semiconductors as new areas like Electric Vehicles, Autonomous Vehicles, 5G Communications and Connected Factories really start to see adoption. The importance of semiconductors in enabling these technology shifts is exactly why they are being fought over at present, with both the US and China keen to protect their national interests and proprietary intelligence.