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What do the US elections mean for the financial markets?

01.12

Market Thinking - A view from the equity market

It looks and feels like first the traders and then investors have completed their post-election moves and are feeling set through until year end. In the US, we said just before the election that whatever the market did immediately on the result, the best thing for investors (rather than traders) would be to do the opposite – a Hillary win would have been a rally to sell, while a Trump win a sell-off to buy.


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24.11

US elections and beyond

  • US elections: significant change ahead, uncertainty prevails for now
  • European outlook: risks from politics
  • Allocation: reduce EM exposure & mind political risk in Europe

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17.11

Mexico got Trumped!

Low growth and weaker peso, but no balance of payments crisis

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election, Mexico, together with China, appears to be the country most exposed to Trump’s economic policy.Trump’s proposed fiscal stimulus has already led to a strong increase in inflation expectations, and his pledges to restrict imports and immigration has spurred a record broad EM selloff.

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17.11

Investment Strategy: And then there were none…

  • The US election should prove a game changer, well beyond economics
  • Fiscal support should boost the growth outlook in 2017 and especially in 2018
  • Trade remains one of the most uncertain areas

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14.11

US elections: A game changer?

Significant change ahead, but uncertainty prevails for now.

The result of the US elections will almost certainly prove a game changer, not only for economics, but for broader global relations and domestic social issues. On the economic front, these elections could mark the end of speculation regarding US “secular stagnation” and the downsizing of global governance (trade, finance and foreign affairs).

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14.11

Market Thinking - A view from the equity market

There has been so much already written about the US election, it feels difficult to add very much and we certainly try and avoid pontificating on politics, not least because things become emotional and that is exactly the character trait that behavioural finance tries to push out of investment thinking. Last week I suggested that regardless of the winner, the correct trade to put on would be the opposite of the markets’ initial reaction since that would be a position unwind (either way) rather than investment funds moving. And so it proved.


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09.11

Donald Trump wins US presidency

Outside candidate defeats Hillary Clinton in the race to the White House

Donald Trump has been elected the 45th president of the United States, ending months of close polling and intense scrutiny. We summarise our views from Laurence Boone - Head of Research, David Page - US Economist,  Serge Pizem - Head of Multi Asset Investments and the investment platforms at AXA IM.

  • What happened
  • Market Impact
  • Our views
  • What's next?


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09.11

US reaction: initial thoughts on a Trump victory

By David Page and Research and Investment Strategy team

  • Donald Trump wins election for 45th Presidency. Trump’s acceptance speech was conciliatory, including a “major debt of gratitude” to Clinton.
  • House of Representatives and Senate retain Republican majorities. House speaker Ryan phoned Trump to congratulate and had “good conversation”
  • Trump’s election poses economic uncertainty. We wait to learn the administration’s priorities, particularly over the more populist campaign promises as the balance between these and fiscal stimulus will shape the US economic outlook over the next 18 months
     

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09.11

Iggo’s insight: a view from the bond market

Hold your nose, disassociate personality from policy and embrace the potential for the end of secular stagnation. Here comes the Trump boom. If actions follow promises, and it is a big if, then the forces that have kept rates expectations down might work to revise them higher. The news tells us it is a historical political event, it would be strange if there was not lasting impact on market prices.

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07.11

Market Thinking - A view from the equity market

In some senses we have to question whether or not it is worth writing anything so close to the US presidential election. After all, in three days’ time, everything will be settled. Except of course that it won’t be, for whatever the result, the markets will move on to a different type of thinking about what it means than they have done so far. As such there is no reason not to start a little early.


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01.11

Lady and the Trump

US elections special by David Page, Research and investment strategy

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01.11

AXA IM's Dani Saurymper: Healthcare after the election – Post-election blues or a clean bill of health?

Dani Saurymper, manager of the AXA Framlington Health fund discusses healthcare after the election – will it nurse its way back to health?

“Healthcare remains in the policy spotlight in the run up to the US Presidential elections. Political commentators believe the most likely election scenario is a Clinton Presidency with a potential Democratic-controlled Senate and a Republican House of Representatives – practically this translates into legislative gridlock. However, there are areas of common ground between the two parties/candidates.”

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31.10

AXA IM's Matt Christensen: Could Trump create a responsible investment 'speed bump'?

Matt Christensen, Global Head of Responsible Investment at AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), comments on what the potential outcome of the US election could mean for responsible investment (RI) globally.

“While RI is a long-term trend that is here to stay, the outcome of the US election can have a potential positive or negative short-term impact on the global evolution of the RI industry. We see that potential impact as threefold across regulation, clean energy and carbon.”

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14.10

US elections: looking into a Trump victory

Markets have reacted to his trade policy proposals, but implications are more far-reaching

The upcoming US elections are gradually taking centre stage in investors’ discussions and risk assessments. There is indeed a clear sense, to which we subscribe, that politics has become increasingly important for financial markets since the global financial crisis. The rise of anti-establishment parties and candidates has raised risk for financial markets in terms not only of the economic outlook, but of the quality of economic policy and the business environment, as exemplified by Brexit.

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03.10


David Page, Senior Economist at AXA Investment Managers discusses the US economy and its impact on global markets.

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27.09

US election update

Approaching end game

We await the reaction to Monday’s TV debate to see if Clinton’s performance was sufficient to arrest Trump’s momentum. Polls at present suggest the election is in the balance.

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23.09

Can politics and central banks derail the ongoing recovery?

Slow recovery continues among rising risks

Political risks will slowly take the front stage, primarily with the US Presidential Elections coming into focus. While some risk-off reaction is possible, markets may see a Trump election as lifting short-term economic activity and boosting corporate profitability which could support the dollar.

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21.09

US trade protectionism is bad for Emerging Markets

A replay of the 1930s trade war would cost EMs dearly

Trade-unfriendly policies expressed by the two leading US presidential candidates in the run-up to elections create uncertainty for EM exporters.

Donald Trump blames trade deals for the closing of US factories and the loss of jobs, while Hillary Clinton has tried to soften her past support for trade deals.

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08.08

US elections: a post-primary primer - part 2

The economic and financial market impact

Republican and Democrat conventions confirmed presumptive candidates Trump and Clinton for the Presidential Elections on 8 November. In two research pieces we review the outlook for the elections and consider the economic and financial market ramifications of the possible outcomes.

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08.08

Market Thinking: a view from the equity market

“The US media is starting to become very focussed on the upcoming presidential election, which will doubtless lead to conflicting opinions on the state of the US economy and when, if ever, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will tighten policy. Elsewhere though quantitative easing (QE) looks to be continuing in the UK, Europe, Japan and the US, while there are signs that the damage inflicted by almost four years of QE on the Japanese bond market is finally becoming evident.”

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02.08

US elections: a post-primary primer - part 1

The candidates, the polls and the policies

US Presidential Elections will be held on 8 November. After the conclusion of the Democrat convention last week, Democrat Hillary Clinton will face Republican candidate Donald Trump (and independents including the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and Green Party’s Jill Stein). Polling has been mixed: Clinton’s lead in the national polls has significantly reduced; key states now show some still leaning for Clinton, but others for Trump. The Election draws several issues in US politics to a head.

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22.07

Iggo’s insight: a view from the bond market

There’s a long way to go in the US Presidential race but we could be in a world, in the not too distant future, where the political leaders of three G7 countries and the head of the most powerful central bank in the world are all women. There is no value judgment intended here but the symbolism of this for those in society that feel disenfranchised by the traditional political elite could be very positive. Prime Minister Theresa May has certainly struck a more conciliatory tone with her European colleagues than was the case from many who were on the “Brexit” side of the argument during the campaign. Conciliation and co-operation are needed in all walks of life when the reactionary impulses are for isolationism and blame.

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Post-US elections commentaries

Published in November 2016

The US economy's impact on global markets - Watch now

US elections: What to expect? View infographic

The #USElections on social media

Follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest #USElections updates from our #AXAIMResearch team

 

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