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Outlook

Investment outlook 2021 - A brighter future is possible

Policy support and hope for a vaccine enabled a defensive bull market to develop post-March 2020

Outlook

Macro outlook – Looking beyond the winter

The good news of the vaccines insures us against indefinite “lockdown/reopening” cycles, but we do not expect a proper rebound for the world economy before the second half of 2021.

Outlook

Investment Strategy

Cautious optimism on global growth may finally be the catalyst for some US dollar weakness in 2020.

Outlook

Emerging Markets – tomorrow is another day

Growth has been weak in 2019, hurt by the US/China trade war and a series of idiosyncratic issues for countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and South Africa. We expect some rebound in 20 ...

Outlook

UK – Life after Brexit

Growth in 2020 will reflect a trade-off between economic uncertainties and degrees of fiscal easing in a range of scenarios.

Outlook

Japan – The land of the rising sun… and falling growth

Japan is likely to face an economic downturn in 2020, impacted by both sluggish external demand and negative pressure from this year’s sales tax hike.

Outlook

China – Entering sub-6% growth amidst trade truce

A structural slowdown will take the Chinese economy into a new chapter of sub-6% growth, starting in 2020

Outlook

U.S. – Dropping below stall speed

Uncertainty over trade policy and the 2020 Presidential Elections are key unknowns in determining the US outlook for the coming years.

Outlook

Eurozone - If only countries could give themselves a leg up

Euro area growth should continue to slow in 2020 as spillovers to the broader economy outweigh any globally- driven improvement in manufacturing and trade.