32 insights found
Investment outlook 2021 - A brighter future is possible
Policy support and hope for a vaccine enabled a defensive bull market to develop post-March 2020
Macro outlook – Looking beyond the winter
The good news of the vaccines insures us against indefinite “lockdown/reopening” cycles, but we do not expect a proper rebound for the world economy before the second half of 2021.
Investment Strategy
Cautious optimism on global growth may finally be the catalyst for some US dollar weakness in 2020.
Emerging Markets – tomorrow is another day
Growth has been weak in 2019, hurt by the US/China trade war and a series of idiosyncratic issues for countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and South Africa. We expect some rebound in 20 ...
UK – Life after Brexit
Growth in 2020 will reflect a trade-off between economic uncertainties and degrees of fiscal easing in a range of scenarios.
Japan – The land of the rising sun… and falling growth
Japan is likely to face an economic downturn in 2020, impacted by both sluggish external demand and negative pressure from this year’s sales tax hike.
China – Entering sub-6% growth amidst trade truce
A structural slowdown will take the Chinese economy into a new chapter of sub-6% growth, starting in 2020
U.S. – Dropping below stall speed
Uncertainty over trade policy and the 2020 Presidential Elections are key unknowns in determining the US outlook for the coming years.
Eurozone - If only countries could give themselves a leg up
Euro area growth should continue to slow in 2020 as spillovers to the broader economy outweigh any globally- driven improvement in manufacturing and trade.
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