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62 insights found

Market thinking

19 February 2019

Is India the next battleground for China v US?

A combination of attractive valuation and an end to distressed selling has helped markets recover in the first six weeks of the year.

Market thinking

29 January 2019

China is not stimulating

This time last year the macro consensus was for strong global growth, led by China and emerging markets.

Market thinking

15 January 2019

From weak to strong hands

Certain aspects of markets feel like early 1999, volatility is spiking as leveraged low volatility trades blow up, and a bout of distressed selling is being misinterpreted as markets being warned abo ...

Market thinking

13 December 2018

Beset by bearishness

Thin volumes, deleveraging, and policy shocks are making for a rocky end to a year in which it is reasonable to say ‘nothing worked’.

Market thinking

03 December 2018

Shrinking liquidity means higher volatility

Against such a background, hints of positive news, such as an end to Fed tightening and or some agreements on trade, could produce a classic Santa Claus rally.

Market thinking

07 November 2018

Midterms to dominate headlines, but there is structural growth in the long term

Traders are obsessing over the midterms, but realistically have not been behind market behaviours so far, and are unlikely to significantly impact direction of policy or economic fundamentals even in ...

Market thinking

26 October 2018

US outperformance over China has not only ceased, but reversed

The US and Japan have joined other equity markets in breaking long term moving averages, as has WTI Oil.

Market thinking

19 October 2018

Midterms may provide trade war relief

US Dollar cash is once again a viable asset class, while structured products that require dollar leverage, particularly offshore, are looking highly vulnerable.

Market thinking

15 August 2018

A view from the equity market

In recent weeks we have discussed the divergence between North Asia and other emerging markets, notably in places like Turkey which fit very much into the textbook role of the current account deficit ...