118 insights found
23 August 2019
Over the long run, total return in bond investing is driven by income. This year it has all been about capital appreciation. Bond prices have moved aggressively and this leaves the market subject to ...
15 August 2019
Doesn't Feel Good
Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means.
19 July 2019
Holidays in the sun
President Trump appears to want much lower rates and a weaker dollar. Those views are political. If we were to get them, then US inflation risk premiums could rise.
12 July 2019
Yield not equal to return
Bonds have sold off a bit this week, but I believe that the bull market remains in place. Global monetary policy is about to be eased yet there are reasons to be relatively relaxed about the near-ter ...
05 July 2019
Here Comes the Summer
Bond returns are being driven by expectations of monetary easing and an unerring search for yield. The result is yields that are increasingly falling below policy interest rates. This may only revers ...
21 June 2019
Lower rates, no recession
Navigating through all the noise out there, it seems the most sensible expectation that investors should have is described by “lower rates but no recession”. Central banks were more dovish again this ...
07 June 2019
Long, but not wrong
Twitter output dips, markets stabilise. Or was it the central banks? And at the same time more and more of the bond market is negatively yielding. The long-end of the government bond market still has ...
31 May 2019
How low can you go?
The environment has become bond bullish and yields are collapsing. There is a growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will need to ease policy in the coming weeks and months.
17 May 2019
The Art… or chance of a Deal
The outlook for economic growth implied by global bonds continues to worsen as risk-free yields continue to fall.