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The week in rev-EU

Key points

  • The past week has been a pivotal one for Brexit. Parliament has resoundingly rejected the government’s negotiated deal for a second time; ruled out a “no deal” Brexit at any stage; and sought to delay Brexit. We review the week’s events.
  • The coming week is also important. Parliament will have a third “meaningful vote” over the deal (MV3). We expect this to be rejected again, but by a much narrower margin.
  • The EU Summit on 21 March will also have to approve the UK’s application to extend Article 50. We believe it will do so for a short, two/three-month period. But this is far from a foregone conclusion.
  • We believe the chances of a “no deal” Brexit are falling. And continue to see an orderly exit to a transition around mid-year as the most likely outcome, something we consider a relatively benign economic outlook. However, the prospects for a longer delay have risen.

A pivotal week for Brexit

The past week has been significant in the Brexit process. Parliament voted on three motions and a number of important amendments. The following provides a brief overview of the salient points and events. We then provide our outlook of how the process could proceed from here. We are mindful of the adage that anyone that thinks they see a clear way forward from here, doesn’t understand the situation. With that in mind we discuss our central expectation, the likely alternative paths and briefly reiterate our expectations of the economic consequences of each outturn.


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