Macrocast - The disappearing European risk-free asset

We see no big change in the overall configuration of global macro risks since our last Macrocast in early August. Uncertainty on the global trade war has not abated. Donald Trump’s decision to...

Iggo's Insight - Price Action

Over the long run, total return in bond investing is driven by income. This year it has all been about capital appreciation. Bond prices have moved aggressively and this leaves the market subject...

Iggo's Insight - Doesn't Feel Good

Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means.

Evolving Economy - Using technology to tackle growing electronic waste

Electronic waste – more commonly known as e-waste – refers to the disposal of broken or obsolete electronic equipment, and unless it is disposed of responsibly, it can have serious...

Research - Easing cycle underway

Going forward, we expect Asian central banks to continue to cut rates with a few exceptions – Bank Negara Malaysia and State Bank of Vietnam.

Macro Insights - Italian and Argentinian political developments, while UK Q2 GDP is lower than expected

Last week Lega leader Matteo Salvini submitted a no-confidence motion, following a contentious Senate vote on the construction of a high-speed rail link between France and Italy.

Macro insights - Trump trade policy dominates, Fed announces rate cut, BoE position unchanged

It is with a certain resignation that we observe US President Donald Trump once again plunging the US into heightening trade tensions with China.

Macrocast - How to feed your dragon

Sometimes monetary policy is akin to feeding dragons: markets tend to be insatiable, and they may end up burning you.

ESG and financial returns: The academic perspective

An increasing amount of academic research is showing that the incorporation of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors can potentially lead to better performance for both companies and...

How are challenger banks disrupting the retail banking industry?

The past 2-3 years have seen challenger banks gain traction, with some attracting significant venture capital funding.

Multi-asset investments views - August 2019: Extreme pricing

We remain prudent on US equities given trade war risks and aggressive Fed pricing; we have introduced a cyclical tilt in our Euro equity exposure as market pessimism on growth is extreme

Macrocast - Monetary Policy Special

This Macrocast focuses on a single theme: monetary policy. It is probably unfair to ask from our readers who are currently dealing with a nasty heatwave to digest a fairly technical and theoretical...

Macro insights - ECB determined but undecided while Fed rate decision will dominate and UK PM hardens Brexit stance

The introductory statement of last week’s ECB meeting was dovish on several fronts. The ECB introduced an easing bias in its forward guidance of “rates at present or lower levels”, and emphasised...

Managing Inconsistencies: what Prime Minister Johnson means for Brexit

Boris Johnson has become the new UK Prime Minister. He made a host of broad commitments, most to be implemented over the medium term and in conjunction with new Chancellor Sajid Javid.

Rosenberg Equities - Global Factor Views

The global economy continues to deliver modest growth on the back of a resilient US. Elsewhere, macroeconomic data has been disappointing, with the Eurozone, UK and China all showing signs of...

Iggo's insight - Holidays in the sun

President Trump appears to want much lower rates and a weaker dollar. Those views are political. If we were to get them, then US inflation risk premiums could rise.

Macrocast - Von der Leyen versus Trump

With the round of top nominations in the EU now largely behind us, it is time to focus on the policy substance.

July Investment Strategy - Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

The US economic slowdown remains modest – the world’s largest economy looks set to avoid a recession in the next 12 months, thanks to the Fed’s monetary easing

UK reaction: Prime Minister Johnson - Managing Inconsistencies

• Johnson wins Conservative leadership election (66% to 34%).
• In a short speech Johnson reiterated his campaign mantra “to deliver Brexit, unite the country and defeat Jeremy Corbyn”.

Is it time to buy inflation breakevens?

The bond market has been on fire since the beginning of 2019. Interest rates are lower, and spreads are tighter thanks to the radical turnaround from all major central banks (from policy...