Eric Chaney's Blue Book

The recent widening of sovereign spreads in the €-area is not the harbinger of another systemic crisis, so far. We continue to ascribe a low probability (<5%) to the €-breakup scenario.

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The probability of the worst case scenario (‘€-geddon') has decreased further, as a consequence of ECB's 3Y LTRO #2 and of the deal on a second bailout for Greece. We see it now at 5%, vs....

The ‘bifurcation' framework remains valid. Yet, the probability of the worst case (‘€-geddon') has decreased since the end of 2011.  We see it at 15%, vs. 25% in December 2011.

Business (almost) as usual (our main case scenario - subjective probability 75%)  or "Eurogeddon" (alternative scenario - subjective probaility 25%)