News
12/04/2012 - The global macro outlook
The recent widening of sovereign spreads in the €-area is not the harbinger of another systemic crisis, so far. We continue to ascribe a low probability (<5%) to the €-breakup scenario.
...Eric Chaney's Blue Book 04/2012 1177 KB PDF
14/03/2012 - The global macro outlook
The probability of the worst case scenario (‘€-geddon') has decreased further, as a consequence of ECB's 3Y LTRO #2 and of the deal on a second bailout for Greece. We see it now at 5%, vs....
Eric Chaney's Blue Book 03/2012 1101 KB PDF
13/02/2012 - The global macro outlook
The ‘bifurcation' framework remains valid. Yet, the probability of the worst case (‘€-geddon') has decreased since the end of 2011. We see it at 15%, vs. 25% in December 2011.
Eric Chaney's Blue Book 02/2012 1049 KB PDF
16/01/2012 - 2012: Bifurcation year
Business (almost) as usual (our main case scenario - subjective probability 75%) or "Eurogeddon" (alternative scenario - subjective probaility 25%)
Eric Chaney's Blue Book 01/2012 647 KB PDF
Aktuelles Blue Book
Zum aktuellen Blue Book
von Eric Chaney 04/2012 1177 KB
